The season ended yesterday, October 24, 2010, at Split Rock Lighthouse Historic Site. For my swan song, I played the role of Keeper in uniform. I lit the beacon at 5:55 PM CDT, six minutes before sunset. In real life, the Keeper would have had the light on half an hour earlier. The light at Split Rock was abandoned forty-one years ago, and has not been used since as a navagation aide to shipping.
Two more special events are scheduled. The light will be on November 5, from about 5:30 PM to 9 PM. One of the Minnesota state climatologists will present an evening program on November storms on Lake Superior. The first presentation at 6:30 PM is a sellout. Tickets are available for the 7:45 program.
On November 10, the light is lit for the Edmund Fitzgerald memorial program.
Not quite the same, but a major storm is taking shape now. The configuration on the forecast models reminds me of the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald, November 10, 1975, and the historic Mataafa Blow, November 26-28, 1905.
Conflicting forecasts appear in today's models, and in the official text of the posted storm warnings. In 1905, the official forecasts were issued by the Weather Bureau in Chicago, 600 miles away. The Weather Bureau in Duluth had professional staff, and relatively modern communications, but 29 ships were wrecked or damaged on Lake Superior on November 28. The storm started out as a warm one, but was followed by a blizzard that came across from North Dakota. Winds in Duluth were recorded at 60 mph, and the temperature fell to -13F in a few hours.
Like today's forecasts, the November 9-10, 1975 storm showed a track across western Lake Superior. The Edmund Fitzgerald took a more northerly route than normal, hoping to take shelter at Thunder Bay, Ontario if necessary. The storm hit on the east end of the lake, well past that point. A tugboat nearby the Fitzgerald recorded west winds near 100 mph. Troughs between the steep waves were estimated at forty feet deep.
Tomorrow, the storm forecast begins with east winds gusting as high as 50 mph, and then shifting to the southwest. Wave heights forecast tomorrow are no more than 12 feet, but big enough to sink a typical 1905 vessel, much smaller than the Fitzgerald. If the storm winds maintain an easterly direction for more than four hours, the waves will be bigger. There would be 300 miles of open water (fetch) to pile up the surf against the Duluth waterfront. If a strong southwest wind builds on Wednesday, I might expect shoreline damage in our Little Marais neighborhood on the North Shore.
To add to my concern, the forecast for North Dakota tomorrow calls for heavy snow and blowing snow. Why would that not reach Lake Superior? The surface temperature of the lake is in the upper 40's, which would lessen the potential for snow along the shore. If the wind direction is west, Upper Michigan would get the heavy snow.
The Off Season began with many of the North Shore businesses in Minnesota shutting down for the season this past week. Among other things for me, it means I can work on creative things, like writing lessons mentioned elsewhere in this blog. Here are a couple of new links to other blogs I've collected in that context in recent days.
Word Lady http://katherinebarber.blogspot.com/
Unclutterer http://unclutterer.com/
One thing about my blogs, I preview before I published, but there are too many typos. I may not notice the dropped letters or the missed words until weeks later.
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weather. Show all posts
Monday, October 25, 2010
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Climate and climate change
December 10 marks the beginning of a seasonal pattern. When I first moved to Little Marais in 2001, I analized the daily frequency of snowfall in Northeast Minnesota, and found that every day from December 10 to January 17 there is a 30 percent chance for one or more inches of snow. My analysis covered data records for 10 years from several reporting stations available online from the State Climatology Office. I'm sure that office has more complete statistics than what I used, but my results prove to be useful. This year's pattern started about a week early.
I provide daily observations to that statewide database. There are over 1300 such observers. There is a grid of sensors collecting detailed hourly temperatures throughout this northeast region. The Department of Transportation has its own sensors monitoring precipitation, including snowfall.
I have no doubt that rapid climate change is real. None of my following comments supports delay or second guessing of the urgent need to go green.
Climate data collection and analysis has improved dramatically in the past 10 years. Some of the weaknesses in the data remain the same, but do not change the results or conclusions. For example, I have three weather stations within 200 feet of each other, and there can be as much as a fifteen degree temperature difference between them due to Lake Superior lake effect. The difference is even more extreme as you move one or more miles inland. I make a judgment about representative data whenever I send a report.
Inland automated weather stations do not make judgments. The official National Weather Service data for nearby Silver Bay is from an airport located three miles inland, essentially in a protected mountain valley. Likewise, the Two Harbors readings are from an inland airport. Grand Marais has two automated stations. The one at the harbor reports similar conditions to mine in the winter, but the surface temperature of the lake often is warmer here from July through September, and it makes a difference. The airport at Grand Marais is several miles inland and over 1000 feet elevation above the lake. This hour the lakeside station is 8 degrees warmer than the airport. On an extremely cold day, the difference can be greater than 30 degrees.
What data should we use to conclude that the average global temperature has changed by one degree?
The State Climatology Office has methods to resolve the extremes and the differences. Satellite sensors provide detailed accurate information. There is little doubt about what's happening in climate now. Other means are required to analize conditions over the past 16,000 years, which is the period you need to cover in my region.
I mentioned in my blog entry on Economics that the Sun is the Major Force influencing our climate. I don't think that gets enough press. There are plenty of climatologists who contribute on solar activity and the Earth's responses. Another subject I haven't seen in the press, but probably has coverage if I did a search, is the potential massive release of methane gas from melting arctic tundra. What and when does that add to the greenhouse? What about the unusual warming of the deep ocean floor of the Pacific? Was that short-term or current? It's my armchair guess that these forces are major contributors to rapid climate change, more rapid than burning rain forests and spewing industry in China, India, and the U.S.
I provide daily observations to that statewide database. There are over 1300 such observers. There is a grid of sensors collecting detailed hourly temperatures throughout this northeast region. The Department of Transportation has its own sensors monitoring precipitation, including snowfall.
I have no doubt that rapid climate change is real. None of my following comments supports delay or second guessing of the urgent need to go green.
Climate data collection and analysis has improved dramatically in the past 10 years. Some of the weaknesses in the data remain the same, but do not change the results or conclusions. For example, I have three weather stations within 200 feet of each other, and there can be as much as a fifteen degree temperature difference between them due to Lake Superior lake effect. The difference is even more extreme as you move one or more miles inland. I make a judgment about representative data whenever I send a report.
Inland automated weather stations do not make judgments. The official National Weather Service data for nearby Silver Bay is from an airport located three miles inland, essentially in a protected mountain valley. Likewise, the Two Harbors readings are from an inland airport. Grand Marais has two automated stations. The one at the harbor reports similar conditions to mine in the winter, but the surface temperature of the lake often is warmer here from July through September, and it makes a difference. The airport at Grand Marais is several miles inland and over 1000 feet elevation above the lake. This hour the lakeside station is 8 degrees warmer than the airport. On an extremely cold day, the difference can be greater than 30 degrees.
What data should we use to conclude that the average global temperature has changed by one degree?
The State Climatology Office has methods to resolve the extremes and the differences. Satellite sensors provide detailed accurate information. There is little doubt about what's happening in climate now. Other means are required to analize conditions over the past 16,000 years, which is the period you need to cover in my region.
I mentioned in my blog entry on Economics that the Sun is the Major Force influencing our climate. I don't think that gets enough press. There are plenty of climatologists who contribute on solar activity and the Earth's responses. Another subject I haven't seen in the press, but probably has coverage if I did a search, is the potential massive release of methane gas from melting arctic tundra. What and when does that add to the greenhouse? What about the unusual warming of the deep ocean floor of the Pacific? Was that short-term or current? It's my armchair guess that these forces are major contributors to rapid climate change, more rapid than burning rain forests and spewing industry in China, India, and the U.S.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Economics
This may not be the best time to admit that I have a BA in Economics, from Macalester College in St. Paul. I also have graduate certificate in Meteorological Engineering, from the University of Oklahoma. Both institutions may invalidate my certificiates based on my entries to this topic. I like the first Richard Daley's regard for experts, so I do not call myself one. My record as a successful weather forecaster is not great, but it's better than most TV weather forecasters in the Duluth Market.
Weather forecasting and attempting to forecast a way out of a global financial collapse have some dynamics in common. There are multiple layers of complexity. There is a tendency to ignore The Major Force (the Sun) imposing change on the global system. We often fail to notice a major change before being swept away by disasters. Then we stop our ears at the clang of the Earth ringing like a bell.
One of my favorite weather observers described the Indian Ocean Tsunnami and its after effects as that bell. There may or may not be an esoteric relationship between natural disasters, political change, terrorism, and multiple layers of complexity emanating from that same region.
By the way, if you try to sell me something because Netflix, DirecTV, and facebook identify me with the Duluth Market, you haven't done your homework. Duluth dominates, but we're on our own for jobs, economic development, or services of any kind in Lake and Cook counties of Minnesota.
I have been following some of the blog postings from the Economist, "Free Exchange" and " The World in 2009". They're not all outrageous, but here are two
One expert hopes the economic downturn marks the end of such "fads" as nutritional supplements and organic foods. She hasn't done her homework at American upscale markets or among the "buy local" crowd.
Another expert thinks a total ban on imports of all kinds should be imposed to bring about an immediate spike in American GDP. If you want a really Great Depression that idea would be a fast track to it. A rats nest of bureauracy would spring to life. It would take more than the 40 years it took to undo the consequences of protectionism imposed during the 1930's. If you work in the U.S. Department of Commerce or the European Economic Community in Brussels, you might think the idea sounds like fun. At least you would get renewed attention from multinational giants who know how to work the system. How about returning to the gold standard instead of the petro dollar standard. Would that be like vaporware in the tech bubble?
Weather forecasting and attempting to forecast a way out of a global financial collapse have some dynamics in common. There are multiple layers of complexity. There is a tendency to ignore The Major Force (the Sun) imposing change on the global system. We often fail to notice a major change before being swept away by disasters. Then we stop our ears at the clang of the Earth ringing like a bell.
One of my favorite weather observers described the Indian Ocean Tsunnami and its after effects as that bell. There may or may not be an esoteric relationship between natural disasters, political change, terrorism, and multiple layers of complexity emanating from that same region.
By the way, if you try to sell me something because Netflix, DirecTV, and facebook identify me with the Duluth Market, you haven't done your homework. Duluth dominates, but we're on our own for jobs, economic development, or services of any kind in Lake and Cook counties of Minnesota.
I have been following some of the blog postings from the Economist, "Free Exchange" and " The World in 2009". They're not all outrageous, but here are two
One expert hopes the economic downturn marks the end of such "fads" as nutritional supplements and organic foods. She hasn't done her homework at American upscale markets or among the "buy local" crowd.
Another expert thinks a total ban on imports of all kinds should be imposed to bring about an immediate spike in American GDP. If you want a really Great Depression that idea would be a fast track to it. A rats nest of bureauracy would spring to life. It would take more than the 40 years it took to undo the consequences of protectionism imposed during the 1930's. If you work in the U.S. Department of Commerce or the European Economic Community in Brussels, you might think the idea sounds like fun. At least you would get renewed attention from multinational giants who know how to work the system. How about returning to the gold standard instead of the petro dollar standard. Would that be like vaporware in the tech bubble?
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