The Off Season

The season ended yesterday, October 24, 2010,  at Split Rock Lighthouse Historic Site. For my swan song, I played the role of Keeper in uniform.  I lit the beacon at 5:55 PM CDT, six minutes before sunset.  In real life, the Keeper would have had the light on half an hour earlier.  The light at Split Rock was abandoned forty-one years ago, and has not been used since as a navagation aide to shipping. 

Two more special events are scheduled.  The light will be on November 5, from about 5:30 PM to 9 PM.  One of the Minnesota state climatologists will present an evening program on November storms on Lake Superior.  The first presentation at 6:30 PM is a sellout. Tickets are available for the 7:45 program.

On November 10, the light is lit for the Edmund Fitzgerald memorial program.

Not quite the same, but a major storm is taking shape now.  The configuration on the forecast models reminds me of the storm that sank the Edmund Fitzgerald, November 10, 1975, and the historic Mataafa Blow, November 26-28, 1905. 

Conflicting forecasts appear in today's models, and in the official text of the posted storm warnings.  In 1905, the official forecasts were issued by the Weather Bureau in Chicago, 600 miles away.  The Weather Bureau in Duluth had professional staff, and relatively modern communications, but 29 ships were wrecked or damaged on Lake Superior on November 28. The storm started out as a warm one, but was followed by a  blizzard that came across from North Dakota. Winds in Duluth were recorded at 60 mph, and the temperature fell to -13F in a few hours.

Like today's forecasts, the November 9-10, 1975 storm showed a track across western  Lake Superior.  The Edmund Fitzgerald took a more northerly route than normal, hoping to take shelter at Thunder Bay, Ontario if necessary.  The storm hit on the east end of the lake, well past that point.  A tugboat nearby the Fitzgerald recorded west winds near 100 mph.    Troughs between the steep waves were estimated at forty feet deep.

Tomorrow,  the storm forecast begins with east winds gusting as high as 50 mph, and then shifting to the southwest.  Wave heights forecast tomorrow are no more than 12 feet, but big enough to sink a typical 1905 vessel, much smaller than the Fitzgerald.  If the storm winds maintain an easterly direction for more than four hours, the waves will be bigger.  There would be 300 miles of open water (fetch) to pile up the surf against the Duluth waterfront.  If  a strong southwest wind builds on Wednesday, I might expect shoreline damage in our Little Marais neighborhood on the North Shore.

To add to my concern, the forecast for North Dakota tomorrow calls for heavy snow and blowing snow.  Why would that not reach Lake Superior?  The surface temperature of the lake is in the upper 40's, which would lessen the potential for snow along the shore.  If the wind direction is west,  Upper Michigan would get the heavy snow.

The Off Season began with many of the North Shore businesses in Minnesota shutting down for the season this past week.  Among other things for me, it means I can work on creative things, like writing lessons mentioned elsewhere in this blog. Here are a couple of new links to other blogs I've collected in that context in recent days.

Word Lady http://katherinebarber.blogspot.com/

Unclutterer  http://unclutterer.com/

One thing about my blogs, I preview before I published, but there are too many typos. I may not notice the dropped letters or the missed words until weeks later.